India’s solar story is getting serious, and Waaree Energies sits right at the center of it. As the country’s largest solar module manufacturer, the company has seen its stock surge 47% over the past year to around ₹3,438. Now investors want to know: can this momentum continue through 2030?

Let me walk you through what analysts are predicting, what the fundamentals tell us, and whether these eye-popping price targets actually make sense.

Where Things Stand Right Now

Waaree Energies is trading at approximately ₹3,438 per share as of October 2025, giving it a market capitalization of ₹98,793 crores. That’s a substantial valuation for a company that many investors hadn’t heard of two years ago.

The recent numbers are impressive. Q1 FY26 results showed revenue of ₹4,597 crores (up 31.5% year-on-year) and net profit of ₹773 crores (up a whopping 92.7% year-on-year). The company commands a 15-18% share of India’s domestic solar module market and has built up an order book of ₹49,000 crores with a global pipeline of 100 GW.

Those aren’t small numbers. But are they enough to justify where analysts think this stock is headed?

The Price Targets: From Conservative to Wild

Here’s where things get interesting. Analyst predictions for Waaree range from “reasonable” to “are you kidding me?” Let me break them down year by year.

2025-2026: The Near-Term View

For the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, here’s what major brokerages are saying:

Current Analyst Targets:

• YES Securities: ₹4,610 (Buy rating)
• UBS: ₹4,400 (Buy rating)
• Chola Securities: ₹3,850 (24% upside)
• Nuvama: ₹3,646 (15% upside)

The consensus from 7 analysts shows an average target of ₹3,321, which is actually below where the stock trades now. But the range is what matters: from ₹2,087 on the low end to ₹4,610 on the high end.

Most realistic estimates for 2025 suggest ₹3,600-₹3,800, assuming stable market conditions and successful project commissioning. For 2026, the consensus moves to ₹4,000-₹4,200.

2027-2028: Things Get Ambitious

This is where analyst projections start getting aggressive. For 2027-2028, price targets extend to ₹8,401-₹11,236, depending on whose model you believe.

What would justify such a jump? Waaree’s planned capacity expansion to 26 GW by FY27 and backward integration into solar cells, wafers, and ingots. If executed well, this could transform the company’s economics.

2029-2030: The Moonshot Scenarios

Now we’re entering fantasy territory—or visionary territory, depending on your perspective:

2029 Projections:

• Conservative: ₹5,400-₹5,600
• Moderate: ₹10,800-₹13,700

2030 Targets:

• Conservative: ₹5,800-₹6,000
• WalletInvestor: ₹12,579
• Optimistic: ₹16,132

That optimistic 2030 target would represent a 370% gain from current levels. Let’s talk about what needs to happen for these scenarios to play out.

The Massive Expansion Plan That Changes Everything

On October 3, 2025, Waaree announced an ₹8,175 crore expansion plan across three subsidiaries. This isn’t tinkering around the edges—this is betting the company on India’s solar future:

Lithium-ion Cell Manufacturing: Expanding from 3.5 GWh to 20 GWh (₹8,000 crore investment). This positions Waaree to capture the energy storage boom alongside solar manufacturing.

Electrolyser Production: Growing from 300 MW to 1,000 MW (₹125 crore investment). This plays into green hydrogen production, which could be huge if the technology scales.

Inverter Manufacturing: Increasing from 3 GW to 4 GW (₹50 crore investment). Not the biggest piece, but it rounds out the product portfolio.

Combined with the planned solar module capacity expansion to 26 GW by FY27, Waaree is basically tripling down on renewable infrastructure. If this works, those ₹12,000+ price targets start looking plausible. If it doesn’t…well, that’s ₹8,175 crores of capital that needs to generate returns.

What’s Actually Driving Growth?

Let’s talk about the fundamentals supporting these predictions.

The India Renewable Story

India added 20.1 GW of new renewable capacity in just the first five months of FY26—a 123% growth rate. The country achieved a historic milestone of 100 GW solar PV module manufacturing capacity under ALMM, jumping from just 2.3 GW in 2014.

The government’s target of 500 GW non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030 isn’t just political talk anymore. India is now the 4th largest renewable energy market globally, and that momentum is accelerating.

For Waaree, this macro tailwind is crucial. You can’t hit ₹16,000 per share without the entire sector growing aggressively.

Financial Performance That Backs It Up

Here’s what makes Waaree interesting beyond just being in the right sector:

Revenue CAGR of 71.7% over three years. That’s not a typo. The company has grown revenues at more than 70% annually while the market was figuring out what solar manufacturing even meant in India.

EBITDA margin expansion from 3.9% in FY22 to 18.8% in FY25. This is the really impressive part. Waaree isn’t just growing—it’s growing profitably. Many companies sacrifice margins for growth. Waaree has expanded both.

ROE forecasted at 21.4% for the next three years. That’s healthy returns on equity, suggesting efficient capital allocation.

Earnings growth expected at 12.3% per annum. Wait, that seems low compared to the revenue growth, right? This is where investors need to pay attention—earnings growth is moderating as the company matures.

Market Position and Competitive Moat

Waaree commands 15-18% of India’s domestic solar module market as the country’s largest manufacturer. That’s meaningful market share in a fragmented industry.

But here’s the question: is that a sustainable moat? Solar manufacturing has historically been brutally competitive with razor-thin margins. Chinese manufacturers have dominated globally by operating at scale with low costs.

Waaree’s advantage is being local in a market where the government increasingly favors domestic production. The ALMM (Approved List of Models and Manufacturers) effectively creates barriers for imports. But that protection could change with policy shifts.

The Risks Nobody Wants to Discuss

Let’s be honest about what could derail these price targets:

Chinese Competition and Input Costs

Waaree imports critical raw materials like polysilicon, primarily from China. When those costs spike, margins get squeezed. The company noted in recent quarters that input costs from China have been affecting profitability.

You can’t build a ₹16,000 price target if you’re constantly fighting margin pressure from your largest supplier who also happens to be your biggest competitive threat.

Technology Transition Risk

Solar technology keeps improving. Cell efficiency gains, new materials, manufacturing innovations—all of these could make Waaree’s current capacity less competitive over time. The company’s ₹8,175 crore bet on expansion assumes today’s technology remains relevant through 2030.

That’s a big assumption in a sector where technological obsolescence can happen quickly.

Execution Risk on Massive Capex

Spending ₹8,175 crores sounds great in a press release. Actually deploying that capital efficiently, ramping up production, achieving utilization rates, and generating returns—that’s the hard part.

The company’s earnings growth forecast of just 12.3% per annum suggests the market has some skepticism about how quickly these investments will pay off.

Regulatory and Policy Dependency

Waaree’s success depends heavily on government policy remaining favorable to domestic solar manufacturing. Subsidy changes, import duty adjustments, renewable energy target modifications—any of these could significantly alter the business outlook.

Breaking Down the Scenarios

Let me walk you through what needs to happen for each price range to materialize:

Conservative Scenario (₹5,800-₹6,000 by 2030)

This is the “muddle through” case:

• India hits maybe 350-400 GW renewable capacity instead of 500 GW
• Waaree maintains market share but faces margin pressure
• The ₹8,175 crore expansion generates mediocre returns
• Chinese competition intensifies despite protectionist policies

This scenario gives you roughly 10-12% annualized returns from current levels. Not terrible, but not exciting for a stock trading at 43x P/E.

Moderate Scenario (₹12,579 by 2030)

This is what most bullish analysts are betting on:

• India gets to 450-475 GW renewable capacity
• Waaree successfully expands to 26 GW with decent margins
• The lithium-ion and electrolyser bets start paying off
• Export markets provide additional growth

This delivers around 30% annualized returns over five years. It’s ambitious but achievable if execution is solid.

Optimistic Scenario (₹16,132 by 2030)

This is the everything-goes-right case:

• India exceeds 500 GW renewable targets
• Waaree dominates domestic market with 20%+ share
• Vertical integration creates sustainable cost advantages
• Global solar demand exceeds all projections
• Multiple expansion as the company is re-rated by the market

This gives you roughly 36% annualized returns. Possible? Sure. Probable? That depends on believing a lot of things will go perfectly.

My Take: What I’m Watching

If you’re considering Waaree, here are the metrics I’d track quarterly:

Capacity Utilization Rates: As new capacity comes online, watch how quickly it fills up. Anything below 70-75% utilization is concerning.

EBITDA Margin Trends: The 18.8% margin is good, but if it starts declining toward 12-15%, that changes the entire investment thesis.

Order Book Conversion: The ₹49,000 crore order book sounds great, but what percentage converts to actual revenue? Watch the conversion rate.

Input Cost Management: How is the company handling polysilicon price volatility? Any long-term supply agreements being signed?

Export Growth: Is Waaree successfully penetrating international markets beyond India? Export diversification reduces risk.

Technology Investments: Is the company keeping pace with cell efficiency improvements and manufacturing innovations?

Should You Invest?

Here’s my honest assessment.

Waaree Energies has legitimate growth prospects backed by India’s renewable energy momentum. The company has executed well historically, growing revenues at 71.7% CAGR while expanding margins. The ₹8,175 crore expansion plan shows ambition and conviction.

But—and this is a big but—the stock trades at 43x P/E, which is pricing in a lot of perfection. The conservative price targets of ₹5,800-₹6,000 by 2030 would actually represent decent returns of 10-12% annually. The optimistic targets of ₹16,132 require everything going right simultaneously.

For short-term traders (6-12 months): The ₹4,400-₹4,610 brokerage targets suggest 28-34% upside if you believe in near-term momentum. But watch for profit-taking at resistance levels.

For medium-term investors (2-3 years): The ₹8,000-₹10,000 range looks reasonable if India’s renewable targets stay on track and Waaree executes its expansion well. You’re betting on sector growth plus company execution.

For long-term investors (5+ years): The ₹12,000-₹16,000 targets require believing Waaree becomes a dominant player in a massively growing market. It’s possible, but it’s definitely not guaranteed.

My suggestion? If you believe in India’s solar story and want exposure, Waaree deserves consideration. But size your position accordingly. This isn’t a stock to go all-in on—the execution risks are real, and the valuation is already elevated.

Maybe the right approach is: buy a position at current levels, add more on any significant pullback to ₹2,800-₹3,000, and plan to hold for 3-5 years minimum. That gives you exposure to the upside while managing downside risk.

The price targets from ₹5,800 to ₹16,132 tell you everything you need to know—there’s massive uncertainty here. Anyone claiming to know exactly where this stock will be in 2030 is guessing. But sometimes, getting exposure to a growing sector with a leading player makes sense even when the path isn’t crystal clear.

Just remember: solar manufacturing has burned a lot of investors historically. Make sure this is money you can afford to tie up for the long haul, and don’t expect a smooth ride.