NMDC Steel Share Price Analysis: From PSU Purgatory to Potential Breakout (2025–2030)
Steel stocks aren’t for the faint of heart. They’re cyclical, politically sensitive, and occasionally a straight-up mess to hold.
NMDC Steel (NSE: NSLNISP, BSE: 543768) has been all three since its 2023 listing — and yet, as of August 13, 2025, the market is finally seeing a pulse: the stock jumped 20.01% in one day to ₹43.02 after posting its first-ever profitable quarter.
It’s a milestone that could mark the start of a serious multi-year turnaround — if management keeps hitting its marks.
Snapshot: Where Things Stand Now
Current Price
₹43.02
Market Cap
₹12,607 crore
52-Week Range
₹32.13 – ₹56.25
P/B Ratio
0.80
At a 0.80 P/B, the market is still pricing this below book value. For a plant that’s already producing at scale and just crossed into profit, that’s… interesting.
How the Story Has Played Out Since Listing
Listing date: Feb 20, 2023.
Core asset: 3 MTPA integrated steel plant at Nagarnar, Chhattisgarh.
Here’s the stock’s journey so far:
| Period | Price Range | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Feb–Dec 2023 | ₹90–₹150 | Listing buzz, then delays in production ramp-up |
| Jan–Jun 2024 | ₹65–₹120 | Steel price slump, low utilization |
| Jul–Dec 2024 | ₹32–₹85 | Plant stabilization phase, still loss-making |
| Jan–Jul 2025 | ₹30–₹45 | Gradual production gains, near break-even in Q4 FY25 |
| Aug 2025 | ₹36–₹56 | First profit quarter, market jumps back in |
Q1 FY26: The Breakthrough Quarter
| Metric | Q1 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (₹ cr) | 2,027 | 3,365 | +66% |
| EBITDA (₹ cr) | -401 | 408 | Swing to profit |
| EBITDA Margin (%) | -19.8 | 12.1 | +31.9 pts |
| Net Profit (₹ cr) | -547 | 26 | Swing to profit |
| Capacity Utilization | 30% | 60% | Doubled |
A negative ₹401 crore EBITDA a year ago to +₹408 crore now? That’s not noise — that’s a full-blown operational flip.
The Bigger Trend: Quarterly P&L Evolution
| Metric | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | Q1 FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (₹ cr) | 2,027 | 2,450 | 2,800 | 3,150 | 3,365 |
| EBITDA (₹ cr) | -401 | -100 | 50 | 300 | 408 |
| EBITDA Margin (%) | -19.8 | -4.1 | 1.8 | 9.5 | 12.1 |
| Net Profit (₹ cr) | -547 | -120 | 20 | 150 | 26 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 60 |
The hockey-stick effect in margins is the main reason the market is perking up.
Balance Sheet Check (June 2025)
| Item | Amount (₹ cr) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | 18,200 | ₹12,500 cr plant cost included |
| Total Debt | 11,000 | Term loans, avg 8.5% interest |
| Net Worth | 4,800 | Post NMDC equity infusion |
| Working Capital Debt | 1,200 | For raw material procurement |
| ROE (%) | -15.3 | Still negative due to prior year losses |
High leverage is a risk — but if EBITDA keeps growing, debt service gets easier.
Analyst Price Target Ranges
Short to Medium Term (2025–2027)
| Year | Range (₹) | Moderate Target (₹) |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 70–104 | 85 |
| 2026 | 105–129 | 110 |
| 2027 | 105–220 | 150 |
Long Term (2028–2030)
| Year | Range (₹) | Moderate Target (₹) |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 | 115–323 | 180 |
| 2029 | 125–476 | 220 |
| 2030 | 135–700 | 260 |
The ₹700 number is outlier bullishness. More plausible: ₹110–260 over the next five years.
Key Assumptions Behind These Targets
- Steel Spread
- Conservative: ₹20k/tonne
- Moderate: ₹25k/tonne
- Bullish: ₹35k/tonne
- Volume Growth
- From 1.5 MTPA in FY25 → 6 MTPA by FY30
- Capex Funding
- 60% debt, 40% equity; keep leverage below 2.5x net debt/EBITDA by FY28
- Margin Expansion
- 12% now → 18% by FY28
Peer Benchmarking
| Company | Capacity (MTPA) | P/E (FY26E) | EV/EBITDA (FY26E) | ROCE (%) | Key Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tata Steel | 35 | 14 | 5.5 | 12 | Diversified, global |
| JSW Steel | 29 | 12 | 5.0 | 14 | Higher-margin products |
| NMDC Steel | 3 → 6 | N/A | 22 | -0.8 | New entrant, scaling fast |
NMDC Steel looks pricey on EV/EBITDA now — but that’s because the “E” is still ramping.
Risk Factors
- Steel price swings (±20% annually isn’t rare)
- Execution delays in Phase 2 (₹9,500 crore capex)
- Debt servicing pressure if rates rise
- Competitors adding capacity at the same time
- Regulatory shifts in iron ore royalties
Strategic Catalysts to Watch
- Q2 & Q3 FY26 results for proof of consistent profitability
- Utilization crossing 70%
- Steel spread trends vs. China CFR benchmarks
- Government infrastructure spending updates
- Phase 2 commissioning progress
Valuation Scenarios
| Scenario | Target Price (₹) | Implied P/E (FY28E) | Key Assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish | 60 | N/A | 5% capacity growth, 8% margin |
| Base Case | 110 | 15 | 4.5 MTPA, 15% margin |
| Bullish | 180 | 18 | 6 MTPA, 18% margin |
Bottom Line
NMDC Steel is now in that sweet spot where the plant is running, profits are real, and the upside case has actual math behind it. It’s also still a high-volatility PSU stock in a cyclical industry, so your conviction will get tested.
- Conservative play: Wait for 2–3 more profitable quarters before loading up.
- Growth play: Start nibbling now, add on dips, ride the expansion wave.
If management nails execution, this isn’t just a turnaround story — it’s a rerating story.
