Qualcomm reports Q2 FY2026 earnings today — April 29, 2026 — after market hours. And ifyou own QCOM, or are thinking about it, here’s everything you need to understand about where the stock is, why it’s been struggling, and what the market is pricing in.
QCOM‘s Rough 2026: Context First
Let’s be direct: Qualcomm has had a disappointing year. QCOM stock was down approximately 13% year-to-date through late April 2026 — even after an 11% single-day spike on April 24 when Intel’s blowout Q1 results sparked a broader chip sector rally. That bounce brought the price to roughly $148–$150, pulling it offits 52-week low of$121.99.
For context, the 52-week high was $205.95. Qualcomm has given back nearly 30% from peak to current levels even with the recent recovery.
Three specific headwinds explain the underperformance. First, a known Apple modem revenue cliff— Apple is building its own baseband chips in-house, which will progressively displace Qualcomm modem chips in iPhones. This is a multi-year transition but the market is pricing in the long-term revenue risk now. Second, China weakness — Qualcomm generates a significant share ofrevenue from Chinese smartphone OEMs. Geopolitical tensions and a softer Chinese handset market have dampened volumes. Third, memory constraints — in Q1 FY26, Qualcomm
beat on earnings (EPS: $3.50 vs $3.41 expected) but gave weak Q2 guidance because global DRAM memory shortages are limiting smartphone production. The memory needed for AI data centers is crowding out consumer electronics supply.
Q1 FY26 Results Were Actually Strong
Despite the stock’s struggles, the fundamentals in Q1 weren’t bad at all. Total revenues reached
$12.25 billion — a record for the company. Non-GAAP EPS of$3.50 was also a record, and at the high end ofguidance. QCT revenues (chips) hit $10.6 billion — a record. Handset revenues reached a record $7.8 billion.
The diversification story is building nicely too. Automotive revenue hit $1.1 billion in Q1 FY26, up 15% YoY — the second consecutive quarter above $1B. Qualcomm now has supply agreements with Volkswagen (across Audi and Porsche), Toyota (the RAV4 runs its Snapdragon Cockpit Platform), and 10 new Snapdragon Elite automotive programs spanning Hyundai Mobis, Li Auto, Zeekr, NIO, Chery, and others.
IoT revenue rose to $1.69 billion. The Meta Ray-Ban smart glasses chip is Qualcomm’s. The Snapdragon X2 Elite powers premium laptops from ASUS, HP, Lenovo, and Microsoft.
This is not a company in structural decline. It’s a company navigating a difficult memory cycle while building durable revenue streams in automotive, IoT, and edge AI.
What to Expect from Q2 FY26 Tonight
Qualcomm’s own Q2 guidance called for revenue of$10.2–$11 billion (versus Q1’s record $12.25B
— a meaningful sequential drop due to memory constraints) and non-GAAP EPS of$2.45–$2.65.
Analysts had expected $11.1B in revenue and $2.89 EPS.
The current EPS estimate heading into tonight is $2.43 (approximately consensus from FactSet/LSEG surveys). A beat is likely — Polymarket traders had priced a 93% probability of consensus beat before the session.
The more important number will be Q3 guidance. If Qualcomm signals that memory constraints are easing and handset volumes are recovering, the stock could rally 8–12% on the print. If guidance again disappoints, you’ll see fresh selling toward the $130s.
Valuation: Is QCOM Cheap?
At $150.26 (previous close), Qualcomm trades at 12.4x normalized earnings — among the lowest valuations in the large-cap semiconductor space. Average analyst 12-month price target is $150–
$153. The bull case (strong automotive ramp, AI-driven edge computing demand) puts it at $215.
The bear case (Apple modem cliff, memory headwinds persist) takes it to $100.
Morningstar characterises it as a narrow-moat company with essential 5G patents and strong cash generation. The dividend yield sits at 2.37% — solid for a chipmaker. Annual earnings forecast from Wall Street for FY2026 is approximately $12.1 billion, implying the forward multiple is actually well below 12x.
The Investment Case in One Paragraph
Qualcomm is the world’s dominant 5G chip and IP licensing franchise, transitioning from a smartphone-only business to a diversified semiconductor platform spanning automotive, IoT, edge AI, and data centre connectivity. The Apple modem headwind is real but not existential. The memory cycle is temporary. The automotive ramp is durable and underappreciated. At 12x earnings with a 2.4% dividend yield, the stock offers value for investors with patience. Tonight’s earnings are the near-term catalyst. Ifguidance surprises to the upside, the stock re-rates quickly toward the $170–$180 range.